Friday 13th Mortgage Market

1. Rates hitting 2026 highs. Rates jumped 21 basis points since last Friday to roughly 6.34%; ours remains competitive at 6.125%. While the move feels sharp, Freddie Mac reminds us we are still better off than this time last year (6.65%)

2. Oil prices and geopolitics are driving the rate spike. "High oil prices are not good for mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, noting that the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.25%, up from below 4% before the conflict broke out.

Where rates go this spring will depend on geopolitical stability and whether energy costs keep inflation sticky.

3. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, don't expect a cut, but watch the language. The Fed meets March 17–18, and while no one expects an immediate rate change, any signal about delaying future cuts creates market uncertainty, which translates to higher borrowing costs.

4. Purchase applications were up 7.8% week over week, suggesting buyers are still active despite the uptick, a positive sign heading into the spring season.

The Silver Lining: Yun added that the market is "so much better for buyers this spring compared to last spring," with more inventory, homes staying on the market longer, and more buyer negotiating power.